By the Numbers

I hope you enjoy the following “By the Number$” summary provided by mortgage consultants Eleanor and Steve Thorne. If you or someone you know needs help with home financing, give them a call at 919.649.5057.

1) THE WHITE HOUSE AND WALL STREET - A presidential election will be held next year on 11/04/08. In the last 20 presidential elections (dating back to 1928), Democratic and Republican candidates have split the final results with each party winning 10 times . Republican victories have occurred in election years where the S&P 500 has gained +14.8% (total return) on average, while Democratic wins have taken place in years where the S&P 500 has gained +10.4% on average. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).

2) ACTUAL vs. AVERAGE - The actual returns of the S&P 500 over the last 50 years ( i.e., 50 separate 1-year returns produced from 1957-2006) has fallen outside of a range defined as “plus or minus 10%” from the index’s average annual return 62% of the time (source: BTN Research).

3) OH REALLY - Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan predicted on Friday 9/14/07 that the Fed will have to raise rates to double-digit levels in the future to fight inflation. The last time the Fed funds rate was at least 10% was November 1984. The current rate is 4.75% after last Tuesday’s rate cut (source: USA Today, Federal Reserve).

4) WE OWE, THEY COLLECT - Fiscal year 2007 (i.e., 10/01/06 to 9/30/07) has just 1 month still to be reported. Through 11 months of the current fiscal year, the government has collected $2.3 trillion of revenue (i.e., tax receipts), an amount that is greater than the yearly revenue totals from every fiscal year in the history of the country except for 1 year (source: Treasury Department).

5) A LONG LIFE, BUT NOT THE LONGEST - The life expectancy of a new-born American baby is 77.9 years today, an increase of more than 8 years in the last 50 years. However, the USA ranks only 42nd in terms of life expectancy at birth among all countries (source: Center for Disease Control, AP).

6) AT THE END - 27% of Medicare expenses are paid during an individual’s final 1-year of life (source: USA Today).

7) I THINK IT’S MINE - The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is holding $133 billion in unclaimed pension benefits on behalf of 32,000 American workers who have lost track of the retirement benefits owed to them. The largest single unclaimed benefit is $611,000 (source: Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation).

A HELPING HAND - 5 out of every 6 employer-sponsored 401(k) plans has some form of employer match for the elective deferrals invested by participating employees (source: Vanguard).

9) ALL TALK, NO ACTION - More than 33 years ago, President Richard Nixon announced the following to American citizens in his January 1974 State of the Union address: “At the end of this decade, in the year 1980, the US will not be dependent on any other country for the energy we need to keep our transportation moving” (source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas ““ USA).

10) LESS OF OURS, MORE OF THEIRS - In the last 27 years (i.e., since 1980), the daily amount of oil produced in the USA has fallen 40% while foreign oil imports has climbed +92% (source: Department of Energy).

11) THE BILL HAS COME DUE - As adjustable rate mortgages are reset from the lower introductory rates paid in the early years of the loans, American borrowers are expected to spend $42 billion in higher mortgage payments in 2008 than they’ll spend in 2007 (source: Fortune).

12) GROSS AND NET - In the last 5 years, the gross value of real estate owned by Americans has gone up +62%. Over the same period, the outstanding debt from home mortgages has grown +79% (source: Federal Reserve).

13) FOR SALE - In March 2005, there were 2.3 million existing homes for sale . In July 2007, the number of existing homes for sale had risen to 4.6 million, or twice as many as the total from 28 months earlier (source: NAR).

14) THEN AND NOW - 52 economists surveyed in early September 2007 believe the chances of the USA falling into a recession within the next 12 months are slightly greater than 1 in 3 (36%). A different group of 56 economists surveyed in late January 2007 believed the chances of a recession occurring in 2007 were only 1 in 25 or just 4% (source: Wall Street Journal, USA Today).

15) GOLF - 31-year old Tiger Woods won the first ever PGA playoffs on 9/16/07, pocketing a $10 million deposit into a self-directed pre-tax retirement account. If Tiger was to earn +8% on the winnings until he reaches age 59 ½, the winnings would compound to $85 million. This calculation ignores the ultimate impact of taxes on the account which are due upon withdrawal, is for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to reflect any specific investment or performance. Actual results will fluctuate with market conditions and will vary (source: BTN Research).