David Lereah poster boy for the housing bubble says it will get worse

For the eternal optimists your boy David Lereah, your ace-in-the-hole, your go-to expert who predicted a “soft-landing” and wrote the book “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust” is saying that we’re in for a lot worse. So stop looking for a bottom. It must be tough when your hero, your clutch hitter finally gives up the fight. Who do you turn to? Lawrence Yun? He doesn’t have the panache, the swagger, the publishing credits!

Quick, somebody, find me someone with a pulse who thinks we’re in better shape now than we were 3, 6, 9 months ago. Please. The pumpers are defecting like crazy. David freaking Lereah is seeing the light?!?!

David Lereah for President. A man that can flip-flop this effectively deserves a sacred seat in Washington.

Pardon my rather churlish response to his whole mea culpa. I just find it rather fascinating. Any way. Dr. Housing Bubble did a great write-up on this very phenomenon. So here is a taste and be sure to check out the rest of his commentary.

“We’re not at the bottom,” he says. “[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we’re not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low “¦ There’s still supply out there in abundance “¦ This thing is going to get worse before it gets better.”

That’s quite a turnabout from the view he articulated in his book, first published in 2005. There he argued that the solid economy, strong demographics (including immigration and aging boomers), and a lean supply of homes should lead prices to continue rising for years to come. “Today’s real estate market is the result of rational decision making based on supply and demand conditions,” he wrote. “With today’s economy, home owners are in no danger of experiencing a widespread fallout of home prices.”

“[I] just didn’t realize the scope, the extent, the magnitude of the loose underwriting-not looking at incomes and wages, just providing so many mortgage loans based on [expected] future price appreciation rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower,” Lereah says. “That got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late.”

We’re taking nominees for the new poster boy. Feel free to suggest your write-ins in the comments.

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