Foreclosure Dads & The 2008 Election

On an East Coast press tour this summer, Redfin argued that “foreclosure dads” — right-leaning suburb and exurb voters who traditionally wanted smaller government, suddenly feeling so much anxiety as to endorse a more-engaged, centrist government– could be this political season’s soccer moms, swinging the election left instead of right.

But talk is cheap. This morning, Jonathan Lansner at the solidly suburban Orange County Register did the actual research, overlaying real estate trends on polling trends. Here’s what he found:

• In the 17 states that are “solid” or “leaning” McCain, according to RealClearPolitics, my spreadsheet tells me that the weighted average home price fell 1.6 percent in a year. That’s relatively strong when you note that First American LoanPerformance’s overall national index, weighted in the same manner, was down 6.5 percent in the past year.
• In the 24 states plus D.C. “solid” or “leaning” toward Obama, my spreadsheet tells me that the weighted average home price fell 9.1 percent. That’s significantly worse than McCain strongholds, as 13 of the 17 worst state home markets are seen by RealClearPolitics in Obama’s camp.
• And those seven toss-up states? Curiously, housing performance fell right between the two candidates real estate portfolios, so to speak: weighted average losses for the too-close-to-call states ran 6.4 percent.

I read a lot of political blogs, and a lot of real estate blogs too. This is the best of both, with original thinking, real spade-work, and balanced analysis. Bravo Jon, bravo!

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