Key Real Estate Market Factors

as they effect Canadian housing

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have moved slightly higher over the past year. This rise, in conjunction with higher house prices, has and will continue to push mortgage carrying costs higher. As a result, this will ease housing demand, particularly for first-time buyers.

Employment

A record share of Canadians continue to be employed, moving the economy close to full-employment. Accordingly, job growth should slow to rates that are more in line with overall population growth. Job creation will continue to stimulate housing demand, but not as much as in the previous years.

Income

Rising incomes will continue because of tight labour markets and a strong demand for workers. This should partially offset the negative impact of higher mortgage carrying costs on home ownership demand.

Net Migration

Net migration is expected to remain strong in 2008. Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia will continue to attract the bulk of the international immigrants. B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan will attract a large number of inter-provincial migrants from the rest of Canada.

Demographics

Canada’s population is aging, and as a result, a smaller proportion of people are in their child bearing years and thus the birth rate is decreasing. High immigration levels will slow the average aging of the population, however, the rate of increase in the natural population (births - deaths) is slowing. This will eventually lessen the demand for additional housing stock in the longer term.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board of Canada, remains positive. Furthermore, strong consumer sentiment is expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Confident consumers will continue to support demand for home ownership.

Market Inventories

Lower existing home sales, combined with a high level of new listings in 2008, will move the resale market towards more balanced territory. As a result, the rate of growth in the average MLS® price will moderate during 2008, especially in Canada’s western provinces.

Vacancy Rates

Modest rental construction and increased competition from the condo market will be offset by strong rental demand due to high immigration and a rising gap between the cost of homeownership and renting. As a result, vacancy rates across Canada’s metropolitan centres should remain relatively stable, but slightly higher in 2008.

For more information, see CMHC’s latest Housing Market Outlook report »